Dark Ipod

Last week, Steve Jobs and Apple unveiled the video iPod to much fanfare and hoopla. Don’t get me wrong. I am a huge fan of iPods specifically and Jobs in general. So it is with some reticence that I say this product will bomb, or at least in its initial state, it won’t change the video space the way the iPod changed the MP3 space.

A little background about this product introduction. The new iPod will allow users to purchase, download and watch videos on new versions of the iPod. Users of this device will be able to download episodes of such shows as “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” from Apple’s iTunes online music store for $1.99 starting the day after the show airs.

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Now back to why I don’t think this product will fly in its current iteration.

Reason #1 – This business model asks consumers to pay for something that basically is free. You don’t have to pay to watch the original airing of the “Desperate Housewives” episode. However, if you want to see it essentially in “rerun,” you can, and it only costs $1.99.

Now, you might argue that this model is more similar to the music model than it is different. Sure, you can hear your favorite new Coldplay single on the radio, but if you want unlimited access to it, you buy the album. This is similar to today’s video model in which you can purchase the entire season of “Lost” on DVD once the season is over. When the original iPod hit the market, it offered an opportunity for the user to buy that specific song for a mere 99 cents and carry it in his or her personal library and iPod for unlimited play.

Granted, there are parallels. However, American consumers in most instances view music and TV programming differently. For most consumers, music is collectable, while TV programming is disposable. Once the show has aired, interest wanes.

Reason #2 – I have a programmable VCR that can record the show that I might miss. Or I can visit my friend Sarah, who happens to have TiVo. In both instances, I can simply fast-forward through the commercials.

Reason #3 – Not that much TV programming is that good for free. I am not going to pay $1.99 for really bad TV fare.

Reason #4 – The inherent problem with this model is that you still need the computer in the middle. You have the programming that resides in the iTunes library and then the player in the video iPod. But to get the programming from point A to point B, you need the computer as the “downloader.” Consumers seem content for the moment to do that for music because they are building their music libraries. Sure, it’s tedious, but music is different.

Should this be the standard for all other downloads, such as video and podcasts? I don’t think so.

Still, for everything that is wrong with this device, I believe it is breaking new ground and pioneering in this area. First, Jobs and Apple have been able to get a huge media company to break away from the deeply held belief that programming can and should only be available at the end of the TV season in the form of a collector’s DVD.

Second, once this download capability becomes “over the air,” it will become huge. Since iPods launched, I have always wondered why Apple’s Jobs didn’t try an MVNO play. He has a loyal and devoted audience willing to pay extra for a device as well as for music properties. And with this initial foray into video downloading, he really is just one step away from doing just that.

If he can tie into a wireless carrier and work out the mechanics of over-the-air downloads, then the video iPod has the potential of becoming another smashing Apple success … that is, if the TV programming gets any better.